(THE CONVERSATION) On Election Day 2022, voters across the country turned to polling stations as control of Congress and the state Capitol was at stake. Over 42 million You had already voted early or voted by mail. The Conversation asked his four academics for their initial opinions on the ballot. The result of the election is Voter concerns about the economy and democracy – And it will take a few days to know its full results.
What Really Affects Elections
Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University
When people talk about elections, they often look at how issues and events affect winners and losers, not just candidate attributes. “She’s vulnerable to crime!” But the most important factor influencing elections is almost always out of the hands of candidates.
In 2022, the fundamentals are moving pretty strongly in favor of the Republican Party. First, President Joe Biden is a Democrat and is pretty unpopular. Approval rate for early 40sSecond, while the economy is fairly healthy in some measures, Unemployment rate below 4%most headings are focus on high inflationCombine an unpopular president with a volatile economy, and the president’s party (Democratic this year) tends to do poorly in the polls.
Even when two candidates from the same political party run for the same state and one outperforms the other, the difference is usually explained by systemic factors rather than position or electoral strategy. For example, in Georgia, where I live, Teaches Political Science at Georgia State UniversityDemocratic Party Stacey Abrams When Raphael Warnock They are running for governor and senator, respectively. No results yet, but Polls point to Warnock doing pretty well in his race from Abrams in her. Assuming that’s the case, what’s the reason behind the difference?
Not because Warnock ran a good campaign and Abrams didn’t. Rather, he helping Warnock but not Abrams has three factors, all three out of his control.
beginning, Warnock is incumbent, Abrams is the challenger. Incumbents do better than challengers. Second, Warnock’s opponents are Herschel Walker has been haunted by many celebrities.scandal; Abrams’ opponent, Republican Governor Brian Kemp, have avoided major financial or personal problems. Third, the fact that Abrams is a woman makes a difference. For some reason, women Face a more difficult electoral environment.Factors such as voter stereotypes and increased media scrutiny keep female candidates on the move 3 points Fewer than similar male candidates.
For the most part, the storylines voters tend to focus on (issues that matter to us, or candidates we like or dislike) are more likely to affect the outcome of the election than many believe. has much less impact on
Mail-in ballots were still safe despite concerns
A few days before this year’s midterm elections, news broke Challenge thousands of mail-in ballots in state elections that could determine control of the U.S. Congress.
in Pennsylvania, State Supreme Court Decision Election officials should not count vote-by-mail ballots that are undated on the outer envelope. And the judge denied a request from Republican Christina Caramo, the nominee for Michigan’s secretary of state. Most absentee ballots thrown out.
These challenges to mail-in ballots are: Long-simmering election concerns It boiled over in the controversial, COVID-19-tinged 2020 presidential election. In the 2022 election cycle, misinformation continues Security and Integrity of Mail-in Ballots number of votes in days.
Vote-by-mail ballots are real more likely to be rejected Because the extra steps required for voters to cast their ballots increase the chances of mistakes. However, it is the result of fraud prevention measures, not proof thereof. In some states, such as California, Florida, and Illinois,PreprocessingPrepare ballots before Election Day to prepare for ballot counting, including verifying voter eligibility. However, many states do not allow this process to begin until Election Day. That means it could take days to tally, including states with important Senate elections like Pennsylvania and Georgia.
In at least some states, voters whose mailed-in ballots have been rejected willcure” or fix submission management errors. This may mean that the results of major races cannot be fully counted for some time after the election.
of many statesHowever, voters are not given the opportunity to correct their mistakes.That’s true WisconsinRepublicans recently won a court ruling that prevents some mail-in ballots from being counted if the witness’s address is not complete. pennsylvaniathe legal process for correcting the error is unknown.
our research shows that effective communication by election officials with voters about voting by mail can proactively mitigate many of the problems associated with voting by mail. Voters who are more committed by election officials to teaching people the proper procedures will make fewer mistakes that lead to ballot denials.
Black and Latino voters unfazed by expected election day threat
University of Virginia Bertall Ross
For many black and Latino voters, it was remarkable that the 2022 midterm elections never happened. Threats to intimidate voters seem exaggerated, and attempts to curb voter turnout among blacks and Latinos seem unsuccessful.
Misinformation targeting minority voters is nothing new.However New state election law rash It has caused widespread anxiety among civil rights advocates about the potential consequences of participating in the vote.
But since its adoption, like every other election, Voting Rights Act of 1965Black and Latinx voters overcame real and perceived efforts to stifle their growing influence. Results of Local, State, and Federal Elections.
In important ways, the 2022 election season has deviated from the historical. often violent discrimination Minority voters oppose exercising their constitutionally guaranteed citizenship 15th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
It’s not that white supremacists in the past have caused fear among minority voters, but the fear during this 2022 midterm election is the potential for minority voters from dozens of new state election laws. It was a mess. These new laws were passed as a result of a conspiracy theory that former President Donald Trump lost the 2020 election due to widespread fraud. Several states enacted new laws electoral law Many civil rights activists and Democrats argued It was an attempt to suppress minority votes..
The problem with the 2020 presidential election wasn’t the prevalence of cheating, but how some people responded. Widespread Voting for Joe Biden by Black and Brown AmericansIt was more than a coincidence The 2020 GOP challenge took place in the city There are significant numbers of Black and Latinx voters in places such as Detroit and Philadelphia.
It is too early to estimate the actual voter turnout, but blackLatinx voters have voted despite perceived voter suppression laws and intimidation.
In an election where the threat looks different than in the past and the prospect of democratic retreat is greater than ever, black When Latino Voters proved resilient and voter turnout was expected to match or exceed that of the last midterm elections.
This article is reprinted from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/midterms-2022-4-experts-on-the-effects-of-voter-intimidation-laws-widespread-mail-in-voting-and-what-makes-a-winner-193436.
https://www.mystateline.com/news/midterms-2022-4-experts-on-the-effects-of-voter-intimidation-laws-widespread-mail-in-voting-and-what-makes-a-winner/ The 2022 Midterm Elections: 4 Experts on Voter Intimidation Laws, the Impact of Popular Mail-in Voting, and Winner Conditions