Chicago — Another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 is likely to occur within 60 years, researchers at Duke University warn. The team says the number of new diseases that spread to humans could triple in the coming decades.
Scientists warn that the COVID-19 pandemic may be the most deadly virus outbreak since the Spanish flu over a century ago, but it may not be the last. .. For those born in 2000 Survive another pandemic Standing about 38 percent. There is a 2% chance that another COVID-style pandemic will occur in a particular year in the future. The survey results are the result of confirming the data for 400 years.
“The most important point is that pandemics such as COVID-19 and the Spanish flu are relatively prone,” said research author Dr. William Pan. University release.
Pandemic’s understanding that pandemics are not so uncommon should be a priority for health authorities responsible for managing pandemics in the future, Pan added. The team used new statistical methods to measure the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks over the last four centuries. It contained a variety of deadly pathogens, including plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus, and the novel influenza virus.
It is unlikely that another epidemic will occur each year.
The rates of pandemics in the past vary widely, but scientists have identified specific patterns. This allowed researchers to calculate how likely it is that an event of similar magnitude would occur again. For example, the Pan team noted the Spanish flu, the deadliest pandemic in modern history, which killed about 30 million people between 1918 and 1920.
The likelihood of such an event reoccurring was between 0.3% and 1.9% per year during the study period. In other words, researchers believe that such an extreme-scale pandemic will occur within the next 400 years.
But the percentage of people who like new pathogens COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) The number of human jumps has increased over the last 50 years, and there is a risk of severe outbreaks. Studies conclude that the likelihood of new disease outbreaks is likely to triple in the coming decades. Therefore, a pandemic of the same scale as COVID-19 could appear on the card within her next 59 years.
Co-author Professor Gabriel Catul states that this does not guarantee that the world will be virus-free for 59 years.In fact, such events can occur the same in any year In the next few decades, According to the survey results.
“If a 100-year flood occurs today, we can mistakenly speculate that we can afford to wait another 100 years before experiencing another such event,” says Professor Katul. “This impression is wrong. There could be another 100 years of flooding next year.”
What Causes a Pandemic?
Population growth, changes in the food system, Environmental deteriorationAnd all the more frequent contacts between humans and sick animals are responsible, researchers say. However, more research is needed on why catastrophic pandemics are more likely to occur and how to combat them.
“This sets a research agenda for early response to disease outbreaks, building capacity for regional and global pandemic monitoring, and understanding why large-scale outbreaks are becoming more common. It shows the importance of that, “concludes Dr. Pan.
The survey results will be displayed in the journal Minutes of the National Academy of Sciences..
Southwest News Service writer Tom Campbell contributed to this report.
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Studies warn that another pandemic like COVID-19 is likely to occur within 60 years
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