A New York-based investment bank said growth would slow from 1.5% to 2% in the second half of next year.
Goldman also lowered its forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of this year by one point to 8.5% and 5%, respectively. However, the company maintained its forecast of 6.6% growth this year.
“We had long expected growth to peak with a mid-year boom backed by vaccination and financial support,” said economist Lonnie Walker. “But subsequent slowdowns can be a bit sharper, as the product-to-service rotation is likely to be inconsistent.”
The recent resurgence of COVID-19 infections via Delta variants means that service categories such as live entertainment venues and service categories related to office-based work will take longer to recover.
Walker said attendance at offices in big cities was only one-third of pre-pandemic levels, and both workers and employers said telecommuting would be more prevalent than before the blockade. ..
“For example, workers commuting to the office have round-trip transportation services to the office, restaurant meals at lunch, proper apparel and dry cleaning services, and other goods and services that pass while away from home. May consume, “said Walker. Said.
Workers in remote areas also need to work, but those who cook their own meals and wear casual clothes make less contribution to economic activity.
Slow growth will also bring about a longer recovery in the labor market.
Goldman has raised its employment forecast for the end of 2021 from 4.4% to 4.6%.
“In some states, we expect to learn quite a bit about the outlook for a recovery in the labor market from the July employment report, which tests the effects of seasonally adjusted irregularities and the early expiration of federal employment benefits,” Walker said. I’m doing it. ”
Goldman Sachs cuts US GDP forecast for 2022 amid virus concerns
Source link Goldman Sachs cuts US GDP forecast for 2022 amid virus concerns