Chilly overnight with a cloudy, sunny Tuesday ahead

A beautiful late fall week is ahead with day to 60-deg and warmer high temps. It’s Pacific air which tends to be dry in our part of the world—and dry air cools at night.  So the best way to characterize what’s coming much of the coming work week is MILD BY DAY; COOL AT NIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNINGS.

Today’s high temp appears likely to reach 63-deg—a reading 13-deg above normal in a month running 2.8-deg above normal to date.  It’s the warmest Nov 11^th here of the past 12 years (since 70-deg on this date back in 2012).

60-deg and warmer highs on Nov 13^th are hardly regular occurrences in Chicago.  In fact, only 22 of the past 153 Nov 13’s have managed a temp which has reached or exceeded 60-deg.  It SURE WAS NICE TODAY—a great way to kick off the new week!

Monday is the Chicago area’s second consecutive 100% sunny day.  It’s the first time we’ve put back to back 100% sunny days together here in Chicago, veteran NWS observer Frank Wachowski who keeps the city’s official sunshine record, in the 5 months since June 8 & 9th.

The metro area continues the dry trend which has dominated the past two months. October logged 2.28″ of rain—just 66% normal and 1.15″ below normal. This month’s 0.09″ of rain in November’s opening 13 days is just 10% normal—0.81″ below normal.

There’s no rain in sight until late Thursday night and the opening few hours of Friday as it appears now—and these are NOT expected to produce significant rainfall at all.

Between now and Thursday night, the area is in for some delightful late season afternoon “warmth”–with each of the next 3 days: Tue, Wed and Thu—predicted to post 60-deg and warmer highs. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see highs Thursday within striking distance of 70—likely reaching 68-deg if current forecast trends continue. 

And as might expected, there will be some gusty daytime mid-November winds with peak gusts reach or topping 30 mph–particularly Wed and Thursday.

BUT A CHANGE TO DECIDEDLY CHILLIER WEATHER HITS with a cold frontal passage late week.  The front is to pass in the early hours Thursday and should take Friday high temps down nearly 16-deg from Thursday’s highs.  Max temps are to drop from 68 Thursday to 52 Friday—and the chill Friday is to arrive on gusty NW winds likely to reach as high as 30 mph at times.

And that transition takes us to a noticeably chillier pattern for the coming weekend and next week—which is Thanksgiving week (Thanksgiving Day itself takes place a week from Thursday on Nov 23rd. Thanksgiving Day itself, though more than a week ago—appears likely to be chilly with highs only around 40-deg—below the normal mid 40s for the time of year.

Illustrating the change to a colder pattern—- while this week is likely to post a 10-deg surplus—next week is to come in close to or a bit BELOW NORMAL—a near 10-deg drop in the week to week average temps.  While low 50-deg highs are to occur Friday, Sat, Sun, Mon and Tuesday, highs in the 40s are all we’re likely to see beginning a week from this Wednesday and continuing through the remainder of next week and into the following weekend. 

We’ll be watching what could be a wet weather system early next week in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Model solutions on that system vary a bit with the National Weather Service and Environment Canada medium range forecast models looking wetter than the European ensemble—WHICH ALSO SHOWS SOME CHILLY—just not as much.

HERE’S MY LATEST MONDAY CHICAGO METRO FORECAST (11/13/2023)

TONIGHT: Clear and chilly. Frosty in some normally colder locations well inland.  Low 34 at O’Hare—but as chilly as the mid 20s away from the city and Lake Michigan.

TUESDAY: Sunshine mixes with some fair weather clouds, mild and a bit breezy from the SSW in the afternoon. High 62—a reading 13-deg above normal.

TUESDAY NIGHT: A cloudy spell gives way to clearing by morning.  Not quite as cool. Low 43.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, turning breezy and warmer. Gusty afternoon winds to 30 mph. High 65.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness, windy and mild. Wind gusts build to 35 mph. Daytime high Thursday 68. Shower prospects grow late Thursday night.  

FRIDAY: Possible early showers, then clearing, windy and a good deal cooler. 30 mph top gusts possible. High 52.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, though cool, close to seasonal norms. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, similar temps. High 53.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Rain chances increase in the afternoon—but a better chance at night.  High 52.